Here are a dozen reasons why the tax overhaul plan that House Ways and Means chairman Dave Camp of Michigan released last week -- or, indeed, any bill labeled "tax reform" -- will not pass this year:
It is an election year, and lawmakers don't take risks in election years. The economic recovery, while not robust, isn't weak enough to prompt substantial changes in the tax code.
Camp's involvement in the movement to stop new IRS regulations governing social-welfare groups alienates some lawmakers and provides an excuse to spurn his tax proposal. Some Republicans won't support Camp's drive even if they agree with his precepts because they don't want to be identified with a proposal that has few prospects in the Senate. Every fat-cat special interest group in Washington -- watch especially for the realtors, who don't want to undermine the much-overrated home mortgage deduction -- will mobilize against it.
Still more: Democrats are offended they weren't consulted by Camp. They're also miffed the Republicans were briefed before they were. The proposal doesn't have a big-name co-sponsor. President Barack Obama and the Republicans will never agree on a major initiative. The political conditions in 2014 don't begin to replicate the conditions in 1985-1986 that produced the last tax overhaul.
Here is one reason why the Camp proposal, or another tax overhaul, should pass this year: The United States tax code is an unredeemable mess.
Into this mess waded Camp, who had hoped the bipartisan super-committee on budget issues might have tackled tax overhaul four years ago. He's devoutly conservative -- he once rated a "0" score from the liberal Americans for Democratic Action, a badge of honor on the right.
Almost everyone on both sides of the aisle comments on how mild-mannered Camp is. Except on one issue: the tax code.
His reprise line is that the tax code is 10 times the size of the Bible without the good news. The proposal he unveiled Wednesday would reduce the top rate from 39.6 percent to 25 percent for all but some of the top 1 percent of filers, who would be subject to a 10 percent surcharge on some income.
Camp and some others believe his proposal would spur growth of more than $3 billion, create nearly 2 million new jobs and bring an additional $700 billion in additional revenues.
The following elements of 1985-1986 are missing today: The kind of goodwill that would prompt a GOP president to elevate a Democrat like Rostenkowski, who died in 2010, from Capitol powerbroker to national celebrity. A president who can make his priorities the priorities of Congress.
Tax overhaul may not be the public's highest priority, but the prospects for Camp's initiative help explain why the public demands an overhaul of the Washington political culture.
David M. Shribman is executive editor of the Post-Gazette, dshribman@post-gazette.com.