One of the great mysteries of this election cycle is who will emerge from a six-candidate field to be named Warren County's next sheriff.
I'm not about to try and predict a winner in this space, but I will make a couple slight modifications to predictions I made months ago when the field was set in February.
Way back then, I figured Warren County's next sheriff would be elected with 2,000 votes. I was basing that estimate on voting numbers from the 2014 sheriff's race when just a notch over 8,000 voters cast ballots.
This is shaping up to be a year with more robust voting. It's even been suggested we will approach 6,000 in early voting, a plateau I think we'll come close to reaching.
The end result, when the dust settles, is I believe we'll have right at 10,500 Warren County voters cast ballots in this county election. That's my fearless prediction.
What that means is I have to revise my vote count for what it's going to take to become Warren County's next sheriff. After crunching numbers and doing some math with a pencil on a napkin, I believe our next sheriff will gain nearly 30 percent of the vote and be elected with 3,106 votes.
For all the talk about this race coming down to a handful of votes, my napkin math says the winning candidate will win by about 103 votes over the second-place finisher, give or take 1 vote.
As for other election observations, I'm thrilled Warren County has overcome our embarrassing voter turnout in the May primary to post some respectable numbers for the county General Election. Local residents seem engaged in deciding who will serve as our next batch of county leaders and they're showing up to early vote by a clip of about 409 per day. This isn't anything to put on a Christmas card, but it is a giant step in the right direction.
As for my thoughts on the Warren County Commission, I'm going to stick with an earlier prediction and say 12 of the 24 seats will change hands. Perhaps these new county leaders will be bold enough to reduce the size of the County Commission to 12 members before they get too comfortable with their seats.
Last but not least, it's still troubling the number of Warren County residents who are not registered to vote. In recent months I've had several in-depth conversations with people who keep up with local issues and who are concerned with the direction of the county.
Any time I talk politics with someone for more than a few minutes I always have to ask: Do you vote? All too often, the answer is no.
I've never fancied myself a preacher but I will say this. It only takes five minutes to register to vote and it only takes about five minutes to vote. Instead of talking about what this community should do, take a stake in it. Go vote and help determine our future leaders.
If you're not registered, it's too late for August, but there's plenty of time to get on the voter rolls for vital elections this November that include statewide races such as Tennessee governor.
Standard editor James Clark can be reached at 473-2191.