Politicians and pundits are still trying to sort out the winners and losers from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
President Donald Trump and Republican members of both Houses of Congress celebrated the historic passage of their $1.5 trillion bill that became law with Trump’s signature. The good news for the GOP is the bill passed the Senate 51-48 and the House 224-201 in favor of the bill. The bad news is nary a Democrat voted for it in either House.
Even worse, 12 House Republicans broke ranks and voted with the Democrats against the tax reform bill. Most of them represent high State And Local Tax (SALT) states, like California, New York and New Jersey. Whether they voted their conscience or their constituents’ preference, I cannot say for sure. However, one thing is certain.
Eleven of the 12 are from California, New York, or New Jersey, all so-called “Blue States” that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The dissident dozen, including one from North Carolina, now find themselves in the crosshairs of controversy and possible competition from Republicans and Democrats alike in 2018. Their breaking ranks from the party faithful on tax reform could be a harbinger of how, when and where that issue will impact House and Senate elections this year.
With roughly one-third of the Senate and all of the House theoretically up for re-election in 2018, I predict tax reform will be front and center in the hearts and minds of “We the People.”
As so often happens in politics, perceptions will probably trump truth. Those of us who perceive the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a positive outcome in our lives will be more apt to vote for the Republican of our choice. Conversely, if we view it as a net negative, we are more likely to vote for a Democrat, if we vote at all.
The special election in Pennsylvania next month looms large as an early test of how two starkly different takes on tax reform could determine who wins and who loses in a district Donald Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016. The GOP candidate, Rick Saccone asserts “the sweeping tax changes will aid the economy and give Americans bigger paychecks.” His Democratic opponent, Conor Lamb derides the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as “a gift to corporations and the wealthy that will add to the national debt and give the GOP-led Congress an excuse to gut Social Security and Medicare.”
Since Democrats must flip at least 24 Republican-held House seats and hold on to those they hold now, a Lamb victory March 13 would be a lion-like event to celebrate. As for the GOP and Saccone, they better hope those who vote do so with their wallets in mind.
Retired Army Col. Thomas B. Vaughn can be reached at tbvbwmi@blomand.net.
