When House Speaker Paul Ryan ( R-Wis.) and Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) announced last Wednesday they won’t be running for reelection this year, they became the latest GOP lawmakers to decide they’ve enjoyed as much of partisan politics as they can stand.
In my view, Speaker Ryan’s impending departure will be another big blow to the already fractious and fractured Republican Party. By joining the ranks of 25 House members who are calling it quits, with more political casualties to come, he becomes a “lame duck leader” at a time when party unity is crucial to crushing a rising wave of Democrats seeking to regain control of the House following the midterm elections in November.
What looked like a long shot for House Democrats just a few months ago is starting to shape up as a potential slam dunk for them come November. Sure, Republicans enjoy a comfortable 237 to 193 majority over the Democrats, with 5 House seats vacant now. However, politics is a ”zero sum” game. Therefore, all the Democrats have to do is flip 23 seats to their side of the aisle, hold on to the 9 Democratic seats being vacated by current incumbents, pick up 2 more of the now-vacant House seats and presto, they’ll be “in like Flynn,” with 218 seats, and the GOP will be “out like gout,” with 217 seats.
That said, a lot can happen between now and November. And Democrats have been known for their uncanny ability to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.” Just ask Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi about that. Still, the wave is flowing their way to regain control of the House -- with or without returning Pelosi to House Speaker.
The Senate is a different story. Although Republicans have a razor-thin majority of 51-49 over Democrats now, they have only 8 senators theoretically up for reelection in 2018, and only 3 of them have decided not to run.
Democrats are facing a more daunting challenge, with 23 of their senators theoretically up for reelection in 2018. GOP strategists will likely target Missouri Democratic incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill for defeat this year, along with Florida Democratic incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson, Indiana Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly, Minnesota Democratic incumbent Sen. Tina Smith, and West Virginia Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin. If the GOP can hold what they’ve got in the Senate and flip 5 or 6 seats to their side of the aisle, that will be icing on the cake for them and a bitter pill for the Democrats to swallow.
Clearly, there is a lot at stake in the 2018 midterm elections for both Democrats and Republicans in both houses of Congress, for President Trump, and for our country. That’s why we the people need to voice our views and cast our informed votes at the national, state and local levels every chance we get, starting with early voting.
Retired Army Col. Thomas B. Vaughn can be reached at tbvbwmi@blomand.net.
