Judging by the way he holds his cards so close to his vest, President Obama must be an awfully good poker player. Halfway through his second term, and few observers can claim to know with any precision exactly what he thinks about critical matters of war and peace.Or what he might do if push came to shove, an eventuality he appears entirely determined to avoid.Obama often appears disdainful of the theatrical aspects of the presidency. He avoids playing dress-up.